US President Donald Trump captured the anxiety and anger of a middle class that no longer felt truly middle class. Life had become prohibitively expensive due to inflation, and the American dream – owning a home or obtaining a university degree – had become out of reach for much of the younger generation. The Democrats were unable to change any of this in practice, but more importantly, they seemed not to understand the concerns of the average American. Trump convinced them that he would correct the injustices of globalization, embrace protectionism, and adopt the doctrine of “America First!”
The question is what American voters will do when they feel that inflation has become structural, especially after the major energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran. Or when they feel that their jobs are under immediate threat due to the onslaught of technology, and in particular artificial intelligence. Predictions about how key sectors of the economy – such as banking, industry, and consulting – will evolve are alarming, as we are already seeing from the layoffs in large companies.
In America today, there are effectively four political forces. The Republicans are split in two: the authentic, populist MAGA movement, and more mainstream voters who backed Trump with considerable hesitation and are probably closer, ideologically, to Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State. The same applies to the Democrats, divided between the wing represented by Senator Bernie Sanders and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani on one side, and the centrist establishment on the other, which is looking for a representative.
Anyone looking further ahead understands that conditions are becoming ripe for an antiestablishment political movement that could unite MAGA supporters with populist Democrats, if they manage to overcome their cultural differences. What is needed is a clear “enemy” – a focal point around which a movement can coalesce. The most likely candidate is the technology sector, which is generating extraordinary profits while increasingly threatening the jobs of millions of citizens.
What is still missing is a charismatic anti-Trump figure who breaks the rules of political communication and mounts an authentic campaign in defense of the vulnerable citizen. The algorithms that have enriched tech companies have already created the “arsenal” that a new populist leader could skillfully use to ignite the political landscape.
Nearly a century ago, Franklin Roosevelt achieved something similar by targeting Wall Street. He forged a broad and diverse political coalition that kept his party in power for two decades. The conditions are once again ripe for someone to attempt the same, either from the left or from the right.