It pains me to say this as a Canadian, a European and a lifelong Americanophile, but the United States that underwrote the West’s peace and prosperity cannot be trusted because it no longer exists. NATO, America’s greatest international achievement, is all but dead. May our once great alliance rest in peace.
Exaggerated as it may seem, America might withdraw from Europe. This must be the assumption that drive’s Europe’s decisions regarding defense policy moving forward. Especially now that Donald Trump has relinquished his role as leader of the Free World and capitulated to Russia.
Put simply, Europe cannot rely on America, comfortable on the other side of the pond, to defend it from Moscow if the occupant of the White House doesn’t perceive Russia as a threat. The golf courses at Mar-a-Lago are far from Poland’s borders with Kaliningrad and Belarus, let alone the killing fields of Donbas.
Instead of weeping, Europeans should thank Trump for showing them his true colors and accept responsibility for their own future. Europe has a population of 450 million people and an economy worth ~$20 trillion dollars. It looks like a great power, and is only a few decisions away from acting like one.
Above all, Europe needs a more independent defense posture. Military spending should account for at least 3-4 percent of GDP, like Greece and Poland. Increasing army sizes aside, this additional funding should be devoted to purchasing weapons systems built in Europe by European companies – not by American arms dealers. Canceling orders from US firms shouldn’t be off the table either. While we’re at it, munitions and technological components used by European weapons manufacturers should also be standardized to improve interoperability and scalability.
Though developing the industrial base of Europe’s defense and strengthening its conventional military capabilities are steps in the right direction, such initiatives are unfortunately not enough to become a great power. To break free from Washington’s guardianship and claim its seat at the adults’ table with America, Russia and China, Europe must also develop its own nuclear deterrent. Controversial or not, this is the only conceivable way forward.
NATO, under the protection of America’s nuclear umbrella, institutionalized peace in Europe, the world’s most war-prone continent. The current status quo is, in fact, a historical anomaly in the annals of European history. Maintaining that status quo is important, but Europe cannot trust Trump’s America, which is transactional, isolationist, unreliable, and uninterested in leading the West, to maintain it.
For those who still believe that America, under Trump’s leadership, would risk the destruction of Washington or New York to attack – let alone nuke – Moscow or St Petersburg in order to defend Warsaw or Paris, don’t make me laugh. That will never happen. Keeping Europe in a predicament where it must rely on someone as flaky as Trump if such a dangerous scenario ever arose is irresponsible at best and a dereliction of duty at worst. Europeans deserve better.
The most logical step forward is for France, the only nuclear power in Europe, to expand its nuclear arsenal. That means doubling its nuclear warheads, to reach the same number as China, and modernizing its methods for delivering them. With the Ukrainian experience in mind, the alternative is countries like Poland and Germany, or Greece and Turkey, to seek their own nuclear deterrents in the absence of America’s security guarantees. This would likely trigger a nuclear arms race that is destined to end in catastrophe.
As far as Trump’s trade wars are concerned, Europe can – and should – play that game as well. The European Union must therefore consider settling more international transactions using its own currency. If it’s “America first,” and therefore America alone, let Trump worry about dedollarization due to the euro, in addition to the Chinese yuan. To say that American companies will struggle to replace wealthy European consumers with comparatively impoverished Russians is an understatement.
In any case, the time for childish games is over. Europe, a political and economic bloc of 27 nation-states, is united for the first time in history. Trump capitulating to Russia doesn’t modify Europe’s interests or objectives. Only its calculations to achieve them.
The alternative to the European Union’s emancipation from Washington is a more fractured Europe. One where each state aggressively pursues its own interests and objectives at the expense of its neighbors. Ensuring a gradual reversion back to the balance of power system that prevailed for centuries until World War II – where big states do what they want, and small states suffer what they must. To say that would be disastrous for the continent is an understatement.
George Monastiriakos is a professor of law at the University of Ottawa.