Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., arrives to speak before Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally at Trump National Doral Miami, in Doral, Fla., on July 9, 2024. [Rebecca Blackwell/AP]
Marco Rubio looked carefully at the map of the Eastern Mediterranean spread across his desk. He focused his gaze on Greece and Cyprus circled in thick black marker and nodded condescendingly. He stood up and shook the hand of his colleague, Republican US Congressman Gus Bilirakis, who, together with members of the Greek-American lobby had visited him, in early 2019, to ensure his support for the emblematic – for both countries – East Med Act.
With this handshake, the man nominated to be the new US secretary of state by Donald Trump became one of the two main sponsors of the bill, formalizing the start of a partnership that led to important joint actions. However, the reason why he agreed was different from that of the other rapporteur, Democratic Senator Bob Menendez. The two senators were looking at the same map, but seeing two completely different things. Menendez saw great prospects that had to be exploited for the benefit of American interests while Rubio saw huge risks that had to be thwarted for the benefit of American interests.
“What I understand from the map you showed me is that in the book of the 21st century the chapters that will refer to Russia and Iran will be very few. Almost the whole book will be written about China,” he told his interlocutors as he walked with them to his office’s exit. It was a thought simply formulated, as those who participated in that meeting remember, but indicative of the prism through which he perceived – and still perceives – the world, and also the role of America and its allies in it.
The name of Marco Rubio as a potential ally of Greece and Cyprus was thrown on the table by Menendez. The two senators were connected by something more than their common Cuban ancestry. They were bound by the difficult parliamentary battles they fought together, especially during Barack Obama’s opening to Cuba, for which they never forgave him. They were connected by harsh stories of suffering from their country of origin and the same intolerance for issues of human rights violations, whether they were related to Cuba or elsewhere.
Too often, in their private conversations late at night in the Hart Senate Office Building, a name would come up, again and again. That of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Rubio was starting to notice him. In 2021, he wrote a letter to President Joe Biden describing in harsh terms the state of human rights in Turkey. “The Turkish president is leading his country closer and closer to totalitarianism,” he noted emphatically. This was followed by his decisive support for the recognition of the Armenian Genocide.
In the years that followed, Rubio’s contacts with the Greek-Cypriot lobbying groups was kept intact, mainly because of Bilirakis, whom the potential new US secretary of state considers a “true friend from the old days.” That is, since they both served in the Florida state legislature dreaming of making it to Washington at some point. Two former Greek-American advisers of Rubio, who were working for him at the time of the adoption of the East Med Act, had made access to the senator’s office even easier.
The constant support of the Greek-Cypriot positions proved to be a key parameter of Rubio’s political thinking, which is reflected both in his letter to President Biden on the imposition of sanctions on Turkey due to Turkey’s provocative plans in 2020 to open the beach of Varosha (the fenced-off southern quarter of the city of Famagusta in Turkish-occupied Cyprus), and in his participation in the second, equally important, bill on the US-Greek Defense and Interparliamentary Partnership.
Rubio has long believed deeply that the stronger the American footprint in our region, the more difficult it will become for China’s systematic infiltration operation. Now if he is made secretary of state, he is expected to work primarily on weakening Beijing’s influence on US allies. In this context, analysts in Washington told Kathimerini that “all these years Greece has not felt the American pressure on its relationship with China. Now it is possible that the time of truth and forced choice is coming.”
Turkey in a difficult position
Turkey, however, is expected to find itself in an even more difficult position, as unlike Greece, is constantly strengthening its ties with Beijing. The signing of the well-known memorandum of understanding with the Chinese tech giant Huawei and the recent request to join the BRICS are examples of that. According to information, Turkey’s first nuclear plant, which is being built by the Russia’s Rosatom, is expected to be targeted if Rubio becomes secretary of state, especially after Ankara’s decision to procure components from China.
In fact, if, as everything seems to indicate, the US implements a policy of maximum pressure toward Iran, Ankara’s main energy and trade partner, the situation will become even more difficult to manage for Erdogan, who was looking forward to a new era in his relations with the US. To this burdensome landscape that is taking shape we add Turkey’s support for Hamas, which for Rubio – unlike current Secretary of State Antony Blinken – is a distinct red line, as people familiar with his views on the crisis in the Middle East say.
Lashing out against Erdogan
Turkey is also expected to face obstacles in its consultations with Trump’s pick for new national security adviser, Michael Waltz, who has opposed the withdrawal of the remaining American troops from northern Syria, a development that Erdogan already considered under way. In the past, Waltz had taken a leading role in efforts to pass a bill to impose sanctions on Ankara precisely because of the Turkish invasion.
Concerning Waltz’s general perspective, sources in the US capital emphasize his significant military experience, which they say guides his thinking and helps him appreciate those countries that have assets useful to US interests in a region that is increasingly more complex. “The key importance of Greece with Souda Bay and Alexandroupoli, and Cyprus with its own strategic advantages, is expected to be appreciated to the utmost by the White House’s new national security adviser,” a source in Washington told Kathimerini.
‘Dictator’
Tulsi Gabbard’s candidacy for director of national intelligence (DNI) will add to the suffocating climate created for Turkey by Trump’s nominations. The potentially next head of the United States’ powerful intelligence services has never hidden what she really thinks about the Turkish president.
In 2019, on the occasion of the Turkish invasion of northern Syria, she described him as “a radical Islamist megalomaniac who wants to establish a caliphate with himself as the caliph – the supreme ruler,” while more recently she said that she is not impressed by Turkey’s support for Hamas, “considering that they also supported ISIS.” She has also said that Erdogan is not a friend of the US and that he is “a dangerous dictator.” Gabbard has a special relationship with the Greek-American lobby, from which she was awarded in 2019 with the Pericles Award, while she visited Greece in 2017, declaring herself impressed by the country’s potential.
Of course, no one in Washington is arguing that Turkey won’t eventually find its stride in the new Trump era. What they say is that it won’t be a walk in the park, as Erdogan wrongly assumed, as his most important allies top the list of enemies of the new US that is dawning.
A hawk from Florida
The 53-year-old Florida senator’s relationship with Trump has gone through many ups and downs. But it has improved significantly since 2016, when they were rivals for the presidency and Trump called him “Little Marco,” while Rubio described him as “the most vulgar person to ever aspire to the presidency.” Born in Miami to Cuban immigrant parents, Rubio studied political science at the University of Florida and was elected to the Senate in 2010 with the support of the Tea Party, the right wing of the Republicans that gained strength after the election of Barack Obama in 2008. His influence on the US policy of the first Trump administration in Latin America earned him the nickname “Secretary of State in charge of Latin America.”
Although a Republican hawk and staunch supporter of Ukraine after the Russian invasion, he has recently aligned himself with Trump’s diplomacy, expressing concern over whether military aid to Kyiv should continue. In April, he even voted against releasing $61 billion in aid to Ukraine. A fierce critic of Chinese trade policy, he has long advocated reorienting American foreign policy to address the strategic conflict with the Asian superpower. In a post-election interview, he announced “a new era of pragmatism in foreign policy,” since Washington’s enemies – North Korea, Iran, China and Russia – are coordinating their actions.