Consumers pay 28% more than in 2006, but buy 2% less than 18 years ago. This impressive figure was presented on Wednesday by Vaios Dimoragas, CEO of NielsenIQ, at the “Grocery Management in Turbulent Times” conference organized by the Research Institute for Retail Consumer Goods (IELKA).
It reflects not only the impact of the last inflationary crisis on prices, but mainly the impact of successive crises on consumer demand.
It is no coincidence that, essentially experiencing a permanent crisis (a “permacrisis”), the vast majority of consumers – 95% according to data from research company Circana – are now particularly concerned about food inflation, as 76% have been affected by the phenomenon of shrinkflation (reduction in quantities in packaging without a reduction in prices), 46% faithfully follow their shopping list, while 40% take special care to consume food so as not to throw it away, which largely explains the increasing shift of consumers to frozen foods. Successive crises have reduced the purchasing power of consumers, but have increased their discipline in the markets.
“Consumers globally are moving from cautious to targeted consumption, because inflation is the number 1 concern,” stressed Dimoragas. It is no coincidence, after all, that promotional activities, as reported by Circana’s General Manager Panagiotis Boretos, reached the highest level of the last five years this year, while the share of private label products has strengthened, albeit with a tendency to stabilize now.
According to Circana’s data, the percentage of sales volume that was distributed under promotional activities in the first half of 2024 ranged in key supermarket categories from 49.6% (in highly pasteurized milk) to 77.9% (biscuits). NielsenIQ figures show that in all main supermarket categories, 67.9% of the sales value in the 10-month period from January to October was under some kind of promotional action, while the share of private label products was 24.7%.
Therefore no impressive increase in supermarket turnover is expected in 2025. According to the baseline scenario prepared by Circana Hellas and presented by Boretos, if prices remain stable in 2025, supermarket turnover is expected to increase by 3.2% annually.