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Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (left) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) deliver a statement to the media in Ankara, on March 12, 2025. [Leszek Szymanski\/EPA]<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
In a strikingly assertive tone, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan has recently reiterated the urgency of his country\u2019s accession to the European Union. \u201cAt every opportunity, I emphasize that this is our strategic goal,\u201d Erdo\u011fan declared during a visit from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Ankara.<\/p>\n
Yet, his message came with a notable lack of humility and an unmistakable air of disdain for the European community he now seeks to join. \u201cIf the EU wants to prevent its loss of power, it can only do so through Turkey\u2019s full membership,\u201d he asserted.<\/p>\n
Ankara\u2019s push to join the club of European democracies is hardly new. However, Erdo\u011fan\u2019s renewed emphasis on the matter is closely tied to the geopolitical upheaval triggered by Donald Trump\u2019s return to the global stage. European governments, still reeling from Washington\u2019s shifting priorities, now face a new reality where once-unthinkable scenarios have moved into the realm of possibility. This shifting dynamic extends to Turkey, a country strategically positioned at the crossroads of continents and a key player in global political maneuvering.<\/p>\n
The timing of Erdo\u011fan\u2019s EU overture is deliberate. The U.S.\u2019s retreat from its long-standing role as the architect of Western security has coincided with frantic efforts in Europe to construct an alternative framework. Washington\u2019s threatened disengagement has created a vacuum\u2014one that others are eager to fill. History teaches that such vacuums never remain unoccupied for long, and Turkey is among the powers seeking to capitalize on the current uncertainty. Erdo\u011fan appears determined to secure a dominant role in the emerging order. His ambitions, as evidenced by his rhetoric and an aggressive military expansion program, now extend well beyond regional concerns. Whether it is shaping the resolution of the war in Ukraine, asserting influence in the Middle East and Africa, or proposing that a Muslim country should have a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, Erdo\u011fan is striving for a front-row position in global politics.<\/p>\n
For many European governments, Erdo\u011fan\u2019s assertion that Turkey could rescue the EU from geopolitical irrelevance is audacious, if not outright provocative. Yet, Ankara\u2019s overture has not been entirely dismissed. \u201cEuropean countries that thought they had the luxury of excluding Turkey until today are now seeing that they cannot exclude Turkey anymore,\u201d former Turkish diplomat Sinan \u00dclgen told Reuters. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has similarly urged the EU to deepen its ties with Turkey. While Rutte\u2019s exact vision remains unclear, one undeniable reality stands out: militarily weak Europe could certainly benefit from Ankara\u2019s substantial defense capabilities.<\/p>\n
But the EU is not a military alliance\u2014and, despite the looming specter of global instability, it is unlikely to become one. The primary roadblocks to stronger EU-Turkey ties remain political. Chief among them are Turkey\u2019s systemic human rights violations and the erosion of the rule of law, both of which continue to preclude any serious talks of accession.<\/p>\n
Deep divisions also persist on security policy. Beyond the unresolved Cyprus dispute and Ankara\u2019s revisionist claims in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean, Europe remains wary of Turkey\u2019s ambiguous stance on Ukraine and its close ties with Vladimir Putin\u2019s Russia. As long as Ankara continues its lucrative dealings with Moscow, it is unlikely to be embraced as a reliable partner in Europe\u2019s evolving security architecture. Europe\u2019s primary military concern, for the foreseeable future, is Russia. Unless Erdo\u011fan makes a decisive break\u2014both in words and in actions\u2014against Putin\u2019s regime, Turkey\u2019s strategic alignment with the European continent will remain a distant prospect.<\/p>\n
The evolving relationship between Turkey and the European Union holds particular significance for Greece\u2014and, increasingly, for Cyprus. One of the core motivations for both nations\u2019 EU accession was the leverage it provided in their longstanding disputes with Turkey. Much to Ankara\u2019s frustration, Greece has successfully positioned the EU as a crucial battleground for Greek-Turkish tensions. Both Athens and Nicosia are watching developments between Ankara and Brussels with keen attention, aware of the shifting power dynamics.<\/p>\n
In Greece, concerns are mounting over Turkey\u2019s newfound \u201cpopularity\u201d in influential European circles. Yet, even more alarming than Turkey\u2019s potential rise in influence is the broader unraveling of the rules-based international order. If the president of the United States\u2014historically Greece\u2019s protector in its conflicts with Turkey\u2014openly flouts international law, threatens annexation, and now even resorts to intimidations of military coercion, fears grow in Athens that Erdo\u011fan\u2019s Turkey might take a page from the same playbook. \u201cTrump is capable of \u2018ceding\u2019 not just half but the entire Aegean to Turkey,\u201d a columnist in a leading Athenian daily warned, encapsulating a widespread Greek nightmare scenario.<\/p>\n
For now, Greece\u2019s government has adopted a conspicuously cautious stance toward developments in Washington. Official statements remain scarce, with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis offering only a measured reassurance: \u201cI see no changes in how the U.S. views Greece.\u201d Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Georgios Gerapetritis has been actively promoting Greece\u2019s role as a pillar of stability in a crisis-ridden region.<\/p>\n
A key element of Athens\u2019 regional strategy\u2014one likely to appeal to Trump and his circle\u2014is its deepening alliance with Israel. Though Greek officials are careful not to overemphasize it, the military dimension of this partnership has grown significantly. This alliance could prove a valuable asset in securing favor with Washington\u2019s unpredictable leadership. By contrast, Erdo\u011fan\u2019s well-documented ties to Hamas are unlikely to win him any support from Trump\u2014or from most European leaders. If anything, his close association with the Palestinian militant group remains a significant obstacle to Turkey\u2019s long-sought EU membership.<\/p>\n
Dr. Ronald Meinardus is a Senior Research Fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n