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Greece is entering the 2026\/27 olive oil season with lower prices, recovering consumer demand and a major question hanging over the market: how large will Spain\u2019s harvest be?<\/p>\n
Initial estimates put Greek olive oil production between 280,000 and 330,000 tonnes<\/strong>, with around 300,000 tonnes<\/strong> currently emerging as the most widely cited scenario.<\/p>\n The estimates from Kostas Koutsioumpis, president of the Association of Greek Olive Oil Standardization Industries (SEVITEL), and Manolis Giannoulis, president of the National Interprofessional Olive Oil Organization, are broadly aligned.<\/p>\n But the outlook for Greek producers will depend heavily on developments in Spain.<\/p>\n Spain had initially been expected to produce as much as 1.8 million tonnes<\/strong> of olive oil.<\/p>\n Those expectations have since been scaled back, with current estimates cited by Giannoulis ranging between 1.4 and 1.5 million tonnes<\/strong> following high temperatures and drought during the summer.<\/p>\n Temperatures in parts of Andalusia reached 42 to 44 degrees Celsius<\/strong>, adding uncertainty to the harvest.<\/p>\n \u201cThe barometer is Spain,\u201d Giannoulis said.<\/p>\n A very large Spanish harvest could put significant downward pressure on international olive oil prices. A good but not exceptional harvest, however, could support greater price stability.<\/p>\n Giannoulis estimates that if Mediterranean production increased by another 500,000 to 700,000 tonnes<\/strong>, producer prices could potentially fall towards \u20ac2.50 per kilo<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Greek extra virgin olive oil reached extraordinary levels during the height of the recent price crisis, with producer prices reaching around \u20ac9.50 per kilo<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Today, good quality olive oil is selling at approximately \u20ac3.90 to \u20ac4.20 per kilo<\/strong>, representing a decline of around 56% to 59%<\/strong> from the peak.<\/p>\n The decline has also reached consumers.<\/p>\n According to ELSTAT data, Greece\u2019s olive oil price index fell from 240.15 in July 2024<\/strong>, when it reached a historic high, to 134.64 in August 2026<\/strong>.<\/p>\n That represents a 43.9% decline<\/strong>.<\/p>\n On an annual basis, olive oil prices were around 15% lower in August 2026<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Despite the substantial correction, olive oil remains about 33% more expensive than in July 2021<\/strong>, before the inflationary crisis accelerated.<\/p>\n Retail prices are currently generally around \u20ac7.30 to \u20ac7.80 per litre<\/strong>, although some products are still reaching approximately \u20ac9.50<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Koutsioumpis said further reductions could follow if production estimates are confirmed.<\/p>\n \u201cIf production is verified, we will also have a price reduction. How much it will be, it is still too early to judge,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n For households, cheaper olive oil would provide relief after several years of steep food price increases.<\/p>\n For farmers, however, the picture is considerably more complicated.<\/p>\n The cost of producing olive oil in an organised Greek farming operation is estimated at around \u20ac3 to \u20ac3.50 per kilo<\/strong>.<\/p>\n When all labour and harvesting costs are included, the figure can reach \u20ac4 to \u20ac5 per kilo<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Labour costs have increased sharply.<\/p>\n Giannoulis said daily wages that were around \u20ac30 to \u20ac35<\/strong> roughly five years ago can now reach \u20ac60, \u20ac70 or even \u20ac80<\/strong>, while producers are also struggling with a shortage of agricultural workers.<\/p>\n The cost gap with Spain is significant.<\/p>\n Greater scale and mechanisation mean Spanish production costs are estimated at approximately \u20ac1.70 to \u20ac2 per kilo<\/strong>, according to the figures cited in the report.<\/p>\n Greek producers in mountainous and difficult-to-access olive growing areas face even greater challenges because mechanisation is more difficult and harvesting costs are higher.<\/p>\n Giannoulis estimates that if current conditions continue, Greece could lose 20% to 30% of its olive oil production over the next 10 to 20 years<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Falling prices have already begun changing consumer behaviour.<\/p>\n According to Nielsen data cited by SEVITEL, olive oil sales in Greece\u2019s organised retail sector increased by around 20% by volume in 2025<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Sales rose from 14.46 million litres in 2024 to approximately 17.3 million litres in 2025<\/strong>.<\/p>\n The recovery follows a major decline in 2023, when sales fell to around 11 million litres<\/strong>.<\/p>\n The trend continued into 2026, with sales during the first eight months of the year increasing by approximately 6%<\/strong>, from 10.5 million to 11.15 million litres.<\/p>\n The recovery is not limited to Greece.<\/p>\n The International Olive Council estimates global olive oil consumption reached approximately 3.215 million tonnes in 2024\/25<\/strong>, an increase of more than 15%.<\/p>\n Consumption is forecast to reach 3.248 million tonnes in 2025\/26<\/strong>, while global production is estimated at around 3.44 million tonnes<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Despite the recovery in sales, the years of high prices have changed household habits.<\/p>\n When olive oil became significantly more expensive, consumers began reducing the amount they used in everyday cooking and food preparation.<\/p>\n That included traditional staples such as Greek salad.<\/p>\n Giannoulis said consumers who learned to use smaller quantities during the price crisis may not automatically return to previous habits simply because prices have fallen.<\/p>\n Greece\u2019s per capita olive oil consumption has already fallen dramatically over the past three decades.<\/p>\n It is now estimated at around 9.7 kilos per person<\/strong>, compared with almost 20 kilos<\/strong> in the past.<\/p>\n The domestic market is now estimated at close to 100,000 tonnes annually<\/strong>, compared with around 200,000 tonnes<\/strong> historically.<\/p>\n Greek producers are also looking increasingly towards international markets.<\/p>\n SEVITEL estimates that exports of standardised Greek olive oil are around 50,000 tonnes<\/strong>, with private companies investing in expanding their presence overseas.<\/p>\n But competition is intensifying.<\/p>\n Koutsioumpis has highlighted Greece\u2019s limited organised promotion of its olive oil in international markets, particularly when compared with Turkey\u2019s strong presence at major international exhibitions.<\/p>\n Tunisia is another increasingly important competitor, benefiting from significant production, lower costs and a special export regime for part of its olive oil shipments to the European market.<\/p>\n As the new Greek harvest begins, the combination of production levels, Spanish output, global demand and rising cultivation costs will determine whether the coming season brings further relief for consumers or greater pressure on Greek olive growers.<\/p>\nSpain remains the key market indicator<\/h2>\n
Olive oil prices have fallen sharply<\/h2>\n
Supermarket prices could fall further<\/h2>\n
Rising costs squeeze Greek olive growers<\/h2>\n
Greek consumers are returning to olive oil<\/h2>\n
The cost-of-living crisis changed how Greeks use olive oil<\/h2>\n
Greek olive oil exports reach 50,000 tonnes<\/h2>\n