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Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system intercepts missiles fired from southern Lebanon over the Galilee, northern Israel, 2 October 2024. [Atef Safadi\/EPA]<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\u201cWhat I fear is that if there is such an attack, it will again create retaliation from Iran and then the war will continue,\u201d Ambassador (ret.) Alessandro Minuto-Rizzo, the former acting NATO secretary-general, tells Kathimerini in an interview. Formerly in charge of improving NATO\u2019s relations with the Gulf and Southern Mediterranean countries, the current president of the NATO Defense College Foundation observes that with the deaths of the Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, the Israeli government is aiming to \u201csettle scores\u201d with Iran\u2019s proxies, looking at the Tehran regime in the long term.<\/p>\n
Israel\u2019s modern doctrine is aimed at eliminating the leadership of terrorist organizations that threaten it, rather than simply eliminating their members. How do you assess the strategic thinking of the Israeli leadership?<\/strong><\/p>\n The situation in the Middle East is more complicated than the Russian-Ukrainian war because it involves an entire region. Israel thinks that it now has the opportunity to be on the winning side and they do not want to lose the opportunity. They have the provocation of October 7, which was a tragic and unforgivable event, and they reacted in the way we are seeing, which led to 40,000 deaths in Gaza. My personal opinion is that at the beginning of the story, Hamas believed that taking hostages from Israel would be the key to negotiating with the government of Israel because that is what happened in the past and many people were released from prison.\u00a0<\/p>\n Today that is not the case, because the political reality in Israel is that the majority are in favor of war. Whether we like it or not, people continue to follow the Netanyahu government despite the initial disappointment. Then, after \u201ctaking care\u201d of Gaza, where Hamas was almost destroyed, the Israeli government decided to close the gap by striking Lebanon and killing the entire Hezbollah general staff, and today we are at the point where Israel feels it is the right time to strike Iran and complete an operation which could not be finished before.<\/p>\n Do you think Israel will attempt to sign a deal soon or will it go for a decisive strike that will consolidate its position for years to come?<\/strong><\/p>\n We need a crystal ball to know the future. But what we have so far is a discussion between the United States and Israel, and within Israel, about how hard to hit Iran. What I fear is that if there is such an attack, it will again create retaliation from Iran, and then the war will continue and that is the worst possible scenario that I hope is not confirmed.<\/p>\n Given the geopolitical importance of Israel and the Gulf states, should NATO be actively engaged in the Middle East war and can it support a second battlefield?<\/strong><\/p>\n When I was in NATO perhaps my most important task was to strengthen partnerships in the Gulf region and the Mediterranean, including with Israel. So, we had two partnerships that were constructive for a long time, but then, when NATO began to focus on Crimea and Ukraine, the importance of those partnerships diminished. I think that in the future, when there will be an end to the horrible violence, NATO can play a role in the [Middle East]. I have to mention that many people think that NATO is a military organization but that is not the case. NATO is a political-military organization and the word \u201cpolitical\u201d comes first. It is also an alliance where you all vote and work by consensus, meaning it is not a typical international organization. So, the civilians rule the military and the context is political, within which the military exists, but only when there is a political decision.<\/p>\n If Israel strikes Iran, could the destabilization of Tehran, combined with the lack of leadership in Lebanon, in the Palestinian territories, and in Syria, lead to complete disorder in the Middle East?<\/strong><\/p>\n What is happening now is really tragic because countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar were before October 7 in a phase of reconciliation and understanding with Israel. Now this war has interrupted this process and is leading us to these results, but I think that if at some point good sense prevails and people are satisfied or accept the tragic reality, then there is room for renewed cooperation, promotion of common interests and values. I think the Arab side understands this and is moving in the right direction.<\/p>\n With developments in the Middle East intensifying, can Greece serve as an operational center by utilizing the NATO base in Souda? Could Cyprus\u2019 geostrategic role be enhanced by a special relationship or agreement with NATO?<\/strong><\/p>\n Cyprus has been divided since 1974 and in my opinion, it will continue to be divided because although we have tried several times from different angles to find a solution, it has never worked. So, I think that in the end the status quo will remain, which is unfortunate and therefore any cooperation is difficult.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
We have many bases, including in Greece, but it is not just a question of having a base. I think the most important connection that NATO can have with the Middle East region that Greece and Italy meet is to build bridges between these countries, and that does not mean with boots on the ground or with NATO military operations, but through the possibility to create friendships in the region through institution building in these countries and helping their governments to shape themselves. So, I think the importance of bases is limited because today you can hit an enemy from practically anywhere.<\/p>\n