A discarded SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket stage owned by Elon Musk’s aerospace company is expected to collide with the Moon within hours, prompting NASA and astronomers worldwide to closely monitor the rare event.
The Moon has endured countless impacts from asteroids and meteoroids throughout its history, leaving behind the cratered landscape visible from Earth. This time, however, the impact will come from a human-made object linked to the rapidly expanding era of commercial spaceflight led by companies such as Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
NASA tracks uncontrolled Falcon 9 stage
Scientists expect the Falcon 9 upper stage to strike the lunar surface on Wednesday, August 5, after travelling uncontrollably through space at approximately 2.43 kilometres per second (about 5,400 mph).
According to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the upper stage originated from a January 2025 launch by SpaceX, the company founded and led by Elon Musk. Independent astronomers first identified its collision course using publicly available tracking data before NASA confirmed the prediction.
“There is no danger to Earth,” a NASA spokesperson said, adding that the agency will continue tracking the object for scientific and educational purposes before studying the impact site.
Impact expected near Einstein crater
The object measures roughly the size of a five-storey building and weighs at least 4,000 kilograms under Earth’s gravity.
Astronomer Bill Gray, who first calculated the object’s trajectory, believes it will strike near Einstein Crater, on the sunlit side of the Moon visible from Earth.
Scientists expect the collision to create a new crater more than 17 metres wide while ejecting vast amounts of lunar dust.
Dr Matt Bothwell, an astronomer at the University of Cambridge, explained that the Moon’s lack of atmosphere means the rocket stage will not slow down before impact.
“It will be something enormous hitting the Moon. There is no danger—we can simply observe the event,” he said.
SpaceX debris highlights growing space challenge
The expected collision has also renewed debate about the growing amount of human-made material travelling beyond Earth orbit.
While space agencies and companies including Elon Musk’s SpaceX have accelerated satellite launches and exploration missions, scientists continue to examine how future missions can better manage spacecraft at the end of their operational lives.
According to the European Space Agency (ESA), around 54,000 objects larger than 10 centimetres currently orbit Earth. Since the beginning of the Space Age in 1957, humanity has launched approximately 17,000 tonnes of material into space.
The previous known impact of a discarded rocket stage on the Moon occurred in 2022, when debris from a Chinese Long March 3C rocket launched in 2014 struck the Moon’s far side.