NATO leaders will meet in Ankara on 7–8 July, with defence spending, the gradual redistribution of US military forces in Europe, continued military support for Ukraine and strengthening the Alliance’s defence industrial base expected to dominate the agenda, according to diplomatic sources.
The summit takes place as NATO seeks to turn commitments made at the Hague Summit in June 2025 into concrete military capabilities. Leaders will focus on strengthening deterrence and defence, accelerating defence production and improving interoperability among Allied forces.
Defence spending and the 5% commitment
Leaders will discuss implementing the commitment to raise total defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. The target includes 3.5% for core military expenditure and the remaining 1.5% for investments that enhance defence and national resilience.
Diplomatic sources said the Alliance aims to project unity and progress, with several Allies already increasing defence budgets significantly. However, differences remain over implementation timelines. Greece has already met the new target alongside Poland, the Nordic countries and the Baltic states, while several other Allies have yet to present credible adjustment plans.
US President Donald Trump is expected to reiterate his call for the immediate implementation of the 5% commitment and urge European Allies to assume a greater and fairer share of responsibility for Europe’s conventional defence.
US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker also stressed that Washington expects every Ally to follow a credible path towards the 5% target, emphasising that increased spending must translate into genuine military capabilities.
NATO transformation and European responsibility
Discussions on defence spending will form part of NATO’s broader transformation, with European Allies and Canada expected to assume greater responsibility for Europe’s conventional defence while maintaining the United States’ commitment to Article 5.
Diplomatic sources said talks on adjusting the US military presence in Europe have progressed constructively. The United States recognises that the transition must occur gradually, as European Allies and Canada can replace some capabilities immediately, while others will require more time.
Leaders are not expected to discuss operational details or troop numbers. Instead, they will focus on the political direction of the process, leaving military planning to defence officials.
Continued military support for Ukraine
Military assistance to Ukraine will remain a central issue at the summit.
According to a draft declaration already approved by the Permanent Representatives of NATO’s 32 member states in Brussels, leaders are expected to commit €70 billion in military assistance for 2026 and maintain support at comparable levels in 2027.
Several countries that provide significant military aid sought national contribution quotas, but the proposal failed to secure consensus.
Total assistance for the two-year period is expected to reach €140 billion, covering military equipment, training and other defence support. The package includes the European Union’s previously committed €60 billion for military assistance in 2026 and 2027 through its new €90 billion loan programme for Ukraine. As a result, NATO Allies will need to provide an additional €80 billion over the same period. The total also includes purchases of specialised US weapons systems, particularly air defence equipment, available only through the United States under the Priority Ukraine Requirements List (PURL).
Whitaker also signalled substantial announcements on continued support for Kyiv, stating that European nations should shoulder a larger share of the burden because the war is taking place in Europe, while reaffirming the United States’ commitment. He also stressed the need to send a clear message to Russia that the war must end.
Defence industry and military capabilities
Leaders will also prioritise strengthening NATO’s defence industrial base.
The NATO Industrial Forum, held alongside the summit, will focus on expanding defence production capacity, accelerating procurement and strengthening cooperation between governments and defence manufacturers.
Alliance officials identified faster production of ammunition, air defence systems and other critical military equipment as essential to ensuring higher defence spending delivers real military capability.
NATO will also prioritise faster innovation and the rapid integration of emerging technologies into Allied armed forces, with military officials emphasising that credible deterrence now depends not only on defence budgets but also on how quickly investments become operational capability.
Brief summit declaration
Diplomatic sources said the Ankara Summit declaration will be brief, following the model adopted at the Hague Summit.
The declaration will reaffirm the Allies’ commitment to collective defence under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. It will also emphasise stronger military capabilities, fairer burden sharing among Allies and continued transatlantic unity in addressing modern security challenges.