Thessaloniki, Greece – A groundbreaking study published on April 10, 2025, in Scientific Reports has advanced the ability to predict the Main Pollen Seasons (MPS) of Olive (Olea europaea L.) and Oak (Quercus) in Thessaloniki, Greece, offering critical insights for allergy management and public health planning in the Mediterranean region.
Conducted by researchers S. Papadogiannaki, K. Karatzas, and D. Melas, the study leverages sophisticated modeling techniques to forecast pollen seasons with unprecedented accuracy.
The research analyzed pollen data from 2016 to 2022 alongside meteorological data from the ERA5 ECMWF reanalysis. Findings reveal that the Olea MPS spans an average of 58 days, starting in early April and peaking in mid-May, while the Quercus MPS lasts about 55 days, beginning in late March and peaking around April 25. These pollen seasons significantly impact allergy sufferers, as olive pollen is a primary allergen in the Mediterranean, and oak pollen contributes substantially to atmospheric pollen levels.
The study employed multiple predictive models, including Thermal Time (TT) models, which account for chilling and heat requirements, Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS), and Temperature-Photoperiod (TP) models. The combination of TT and PLS methods proved most effective, with PLS excelling in predicting the start of the MPS for both species and TT models performing well for the season’s end. Key meteorological factors, such as spring and preceding autumn temperatures, were identified as major drivers of pollen season timing.
Chilling requirements for both species typically begin in late November to early December and end by early January, requiring approximately 1,187 chilling hours. Heating requirements for the MPS onset ranged from 435°C to 1,113°C for Olea and 544°C to 1,081°C for Quercus, highlighting the importance of localized thermal data for accurate predictions.
“These findings underscore the need for region-specific aerobiological studies,” said lead author S. Papadogiannaki. “Accurate pollen season forecasts can help allergy sufferers prepare and support public health strategies to mitigate allergic reactions, which affect up to 40% of the population in some European urban centers.”
The study also contextualizes Thessaloniki’s pollen dynamics within the broader Mediterranean region, noting longer MPS durations compared to areas like southern Spain. This regional variation emphasizes the role of local climate conditions in shaping pollen seasons, particularly under the influence of climate change, which is projected to intensify pollen concentrations and shift season timings.
By integrating advanced modeling with detailed local data, the research provides a robust framework for forecasting pollen seasons, offering hope for improved allergy management and enhanced ecological understanding in Thessaloniki and beyond.
Source: Papadogiannaki, S., Karatzas, K., Kontos, S. et al. Comparative modeling approaches for predicting Olea and Quercus pollen seasons in Thessaloniki, Greece. Sci Rep 15, 12215 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-92259-3