The agreement signed between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the transitional Syrian government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa is an important step toward improving the situation in the country, Professor Olivier Roy, a scholar of Islam and joint-chair of the Robert Schuman Center for Advanced Studies and Political and Social Sciences department at the European University Institute in Florence, tells Kathimerini.
Roy, who is also author of, among many other books, “Globalized Islam,” “Holy Ignorance,” and “The Failure of Political Islam,” believes that the recent wave of sectarian violence in which hundreds of people have been killed is the result of the transitional government’s inability to control paramilitary groups that are out of control.
Is the agreement between the Syrian interim government and the Kurdish forces a step forward to easing the tensions inside the country? Which main challenges do you see in the implementation of this agreement?
Yes, because it provides a strong basis for a peaceful and durable coexistence in the framework of common nation-state: The Kurdish side gave up the idea to carve some sort of a Kurdish autonomous area in the northeast and the interim government decided to recognize the linguistic and cultural rights of the Kurds (and also to provide citizenship to all the Kurds living in Syria; during the Assad regime, around 1 million Kurds in Syria were denied citizenship). The main challenges are, first, the attitude of Turkey: Would Turkey be satisfied with the present agreement or would it exert more pressure for an immediate disarmament; and second, the attitude of the PKK armed militants based in Syria: Will they accept the truce? Where will they go?
What would that mean for the security of the SDF area which is close to the border with Turkey?
Either Turkey will just continue to close the border, or Turkey will try to extend its security zone inside Syria, using Syrians as proxies. In this case the SDF might keep fighting. The interim government has no way to ensure the inviolability of the border in the present circumstances.
How do you interpret the recent violence in Syria with mass killings of Alawites and Christian minorities? Is this the true face of the new regime?
No, it shows mainly that the regime does not control the different militias and has too few reliable military forces that could curb and disarm the troublemakers. Retaliations and extortions are quite inevitable in the present circumstances, all the more since there are also financial and mafia stakes at the local level.
Is there a danger that things might escalate to a new civil war?
Only if the agreement with the Kurds does not work. If it works the regime can impose itself on the Alawis and the Druze, the two main military forces. Moreover, the Alawis are not united.
Should the international community rely on the investigation of the events by a Syrian committee, as announced by al-Gulani?
It is in the interest of al-Gulani to put an end to these kinds of massacres and to appear as a peacemaker. So for the moment we can trust him.
How do you expect the neighboring powers to react?
It is in the interest of Israel to maintain anarchy in Syria: Tel Aviv does not want a strong Syrian state that could reclaim the Golan. For Turkey, the issue is to disarm the Kurds, so they need a stable regime in Damascus and will continue to support the present regime. The Turks do not trust the Alawis anyway. Lebanon has everything to lose from a continuation of fighting in Syria, but has no leverage on it. Same for Iraq.