University students march past a photograph of Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 27, 2025, during a protest after Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was arrested and sent to prison. [Francisco Seco/AP]
The European Union is numb to the moves of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is taking advantage of a highly favorable international environment. US President Donald Trump is practically encouraging him.
As the US moves further away from Europe, the Europeans need the help of NATO’s second largest army, Turkey’s, to provide troop support for a possible peacekeeping force in Ukraine. In addition, the European Union still relies heavily on Turkey to keep waves of refugees away from its borders.
“The EU’s reaction to developments in Turkey has been muted and careful, which is all it can afford to do at the moment given transactional relations,” says Emre Peker, director at Eurasia Group covering Turkey.
‘Shunning Erdogan at a time Trump is threatening European security and undermining EU objectives in Ukraine would also be an own goal’
Indeed, the toughest statement so far came from the outgoing German government, the outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz and foreign minister Annalena Baerbock. The joint statement by EU High Representative Kaja Kallas and Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos fell short of expectations and disappointed many.
“The EU’s muted reaction to [Istanbul Mayor Ekrem] Imamoglu’s arrest and the judiciary investigations targeting Turkey’s opposition looks likely to be the latest incident where realpolitik trumps principles,” says Peker.
Dimitar Bechev, lecturer at the University of Oxford and nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, says “transactional” is probably not the right word. “EU-Turkey is structural, not one-off (transactional). Even deals involving cash in return for keeping migrants away from Europe are not truly ‘transactional.’ They are product of interdependence between EU and Turkey which creates incentives to cooperate, irrespective of political differences.”
According to Bechev, after the latest developments, the EU will probably not give the go-ahead for talks on updating the Customs Union. He notes that cooperation on defense, which the EU wants to progress, won’t create positive dynamics in other sectors, to do with economic integration.
Criticism will probably be limited and the European Parliament will be the most vocal institution. But Erdogan won’t be invited to take part in Council summits in Brussels. The latter though, he explains, is not that important as he will continue to meet his EU peers through the European Political Community.
Peker notes that Brussels does not have much leverage on Ankara given the lack of any meaningful avenues to deepen bilateral ties.
The migration issue
Bechev said it is unlikely that the EU will cut Turkey’s funding. After all, he recalls, in the past, the EU lobbied Turkey behind the scene on releasing imprisoned businessman, philanthropist and political activist Osman Kavala or the imprisoned former leader of the pro-Kurdish HDP party Selahattin Demirtas, “but never made them a cornerstone issue.”
“Turkey’s accession process has long been dead, the EU will not move forward with updating the Customs Union despite strong support from its business community, and EU funding has already been significantly curtailed,” says Peker.
He adds that rolling back payouts for Syrian refugees or not supporting Turkish reconstruction efforts in Syria would backfire on Europe, at a time it can ill afford migratory pressures. “Shunning Erdogan at a time Trump is threatening European security and undermining EU objectives in Ukraine would also be an own goal. Sanctions over a judiciary process in Turkey, regardless of how politicized the allegations may be, is also likely a nonstarter in Brussels, given geopolitical sensitivities.”