The return of the old rivalry between New Democracy and PASOK could be seen as the natural post-crisis evolution of political associations in Greece, after the noisy shrinking of leftist SYRIZA.
But the return to the traditional two-party system does not restore the predictability of a quiet routine with the self-evident rotation in power of the two largest parties, not least because their percentages are low and would not achieve a governing majority, which means political stability will be fragile after the next election.
After the shock of the country’s bankruptcy and what followed came the Covid-19 pandemic and then the war in Ukraine with a dramatic impact on inflation and, at the same time, the successive natural disasters that proved, in addition to the intensity of climate change, the fragility of the Greek state. In other words, in the last 15 years there has not been a period of calm and this has been a catalyst for social behavior and mentality, and therefore for the political system as well.
In the bigger picture, in the geopolitical and international environment, there are no longer guarantees or even stable references. East, south and north of Greece there is turmoil and bloodshed, while European leadership is weaker than ever, the EU’s economic dynamic is in retreat, its responses to the great challenges of demographics, immigration and environmental destruction are insufficient. In the United States, the new Donald Trump era has begun with unpredictable upcoming changes at a world level, perhaps through the adulteration of Western democracy with authoritarianism, which will in fact have an impact on this side of the Atlantic as well.
At such a historical juncture, with the irreversible absence of major narratives, it is expected that the parties of a small, economically and institutionally weak country will follow international trends, at some delay and some national particularities.
Thus, the far-right is strengthened here as well, and if it were not fragmented it would already have reached 20%, the parties of “neither right nor left” (such as the new one created by former SYRIZA leader Stefanos Kasselakis and Zoi Konstantopoulou’s Course of Freedom) are growing, there are no charismatic leaders with a widely respected reputation, while voters are moving away from the traditional parties by voting with anger. Social media competes for influence with conventional media, the risk of voter abstention, especially among younger people, is growing, and last-minute voting is increasingly affecting the election result.
This new two-party system is strange. Who is more centrist? Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis or former PASOK MP Anna Diamantopoulou? And why do so many former PASOK ministers fit so comfortably in a New Democracy government? Is PASOK now more convincing or is it just SYRIZA shrinking? Can PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis appear prime-ministerial or will he only be able to enter the Maximos Mansion – the prime minister’s office – if the government’s wear and tear becomes irreversible?
Is there a chance that the ruling conservatives will look further to the right after the next elections to find a coalition partner? Could it change its leader before the 2027 elections? Is it possible for PASOK to form a progressive front with what remains of SYRIZA, and its offshoot, the New Left? Will Kasselakis’ new party be able to cooperate with the winning party, whoever that is? And what about former premier and SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras? Indeed, is he preparing to lead a new political formation with SYRIZA as a component? And if so, isn’t it too soon? And will it have any chance of success or does he belong to the old political world? Do we still not know how many parties will take part in the next elections with the possibility of being represented in Parliament? And what will happen if Mitsotakis recommends for president an emblematic figure of the center-left like former finance minister and PASOK leader Evangelos Venizelos?
What is certain is that, while neither of the two largest parties seems likely to govern alone in the foreseeable future, nor are they building alliances with a potential coalition partner, the new two-party system traffics in the collective fantasy of the good old years of linear prosperity. Meanwhile, the nightmare of bankruptcy creates contradictory associations in people’s minds and the feeling of a second time round may perhaps not appeal even to the determined voters of both parties.