On March 6, 2025, Kathimerini published an article I wrote titled “Greece must adjust to Turkey’s growing importance for European security.” Instead of engaging with my analysis of the European balance of power in a respectful manner, fellow Greeks insulted me – someone who received death threats for publicly advocating that Turkey should be expelled from NATO in 2023 – as a traitor.
The only betrayal taking place is theirs – the betrayal of reality.
Put simply, I argued that Washington is retreating from the old continent, that Europe is seeking closer ties with Turkey and Ukraine to fill the void left by America, and that Greece must find a way to navigate this new balance of power without becoming isolated within Europe by Ankara.
Europe’s strategic alignment with Turkey has already been under way for months, if not years. Consider just a few developments in European-Turkish relations since Donald Trump was re-elected as president of the United States.
First, after nearly 14 years of civil war, Ankara helped the Hayat Tahrir Al Sham-led coalition overthrow the Russia and Iran-backed dictator of Syria. Before that, I, like many others, argued that Turkey was leaning toward Moscow instead of Europe and Ukraine. That is obviously not the case.
Second, Portugal awarded a contract to Turkish defense company STM to build logistics vessels for the Portuguese Navy. In fact, this was the first time that the Turkish government allowed STM to export military vessels to an EU and NATO member-state.
Third, Spain signed a memorandum of understanding with Turkish Aerospace Industries to collaborate on the Hurjet Trainer Aircraft project. Madrid intends to replace its aging fleet of F-5s with 24 Turkish-made Hurjets. General Francisco Braco Carbo, commander of the Spanish Air Force, has since flown a formation flight with his Turkish counterpart.
Fourth, Turkey is procuring Meteor missiles manufactured by a consortium of European companies including France’s Airbus, the United Kingdom’s BAE Systems, and Italy’s Leonardo, even though Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis lobbied French President Emmanuel Macron to cancel the transaction on the basis of Greece’s 2021 defense agreement with France.
Fifth, Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar acquired Italy’s struggling Piaggio Aerospace in December. Yet security cooperation between Ankara and Rome doesn’t end there. The same day that my article was published by Kathimerini, Italy’s Leonardo announced a joint venture to produce unmanned aerial vehicles with Turkey’s Baykar.
Sixth, Poland deployed a military unit with Bayraktar TB2 drones to the Turkish Republic as part of NATO’s Tailored Assurance Measures for Turkey (TAMT). Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has since stated that Turkey must play a more important role in European security, and is scheduled to meet with Turkish President Erdogan in Ankara to discuss that next week.
Seventh, Turkey has also committed to deploying soldiers to Ukraine if the need should arise. This might not mean much in Athens, but it makes waves in Brussels, Paris, Berlin, London, Rome, Warsaw and Kyiv.
Most shocking of all, it is likely that this record barely scratches the surface of Europe’s strategic alignment with Turkey.
Why? Because Russia succeeding in Ukraine would be terrible for Europe – especially for Greece. Not only since the balance between Athens (without Europe) and Ankara is less favorable than the power differential between Kyiv and Moscow, but because the precedent of a big state invading its smaller neighbor to annex its sovereign territory might someday be used against Greece itself – by Turkey.
Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and America’s retreat from Europe are serious crises. Moscow is perceived as a threat across Europe. Ankara shares a similar perception. It seems Europe and Turkey need (or want) each other to counter this threat, hence why British Prime Minister Keir Starmer invited Ankara to the emergency summit for Ukraine in London while Greece’s invitation got lost in the mail.
Most European capitals view Turkey as an asset to shift the balance of power in favor of Europe against Russia, even if you don’t share that perspective. It isn’t personal, just International Relations 101. We ignore this reality at our own peril.
George Monastiriakos
George Monastiriakos is a professor of law at the University of Ottawa.