French President Emmanuel Macron (left) speaks with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Paris on February 10, on the sidelines of a summit on artificial intelligence. The two leaders have also discussed the possible sale of Meteor missiles to Turkey, which Athens objects to. [AMNA]
Recent reports concerning the possible sale of Meteor missiles to Turkey by a consortium with French involvement have understandably piqued Greek public opinion, as such a move would shift the balance of air power following Greece’s acquisition of French Rafale jets and its F-16 upgrades. The Meteor is a powerful and fast air-to-air missile that gives the Hellenic Air Force a decided advantage in the skies. If Paris approves the sale, it will represent the second time in the past year that Greece sees itself losing a comparative advantage. The first came with the German government’s decision to sell Type 214 submarines to Turkey so it could counter Greece’s edge in the Aegean.
There are some enlightening conclusions to be drawn from these developments. First and foremost, that European solidarity is effectively nonexistent in defense, as the major producers of military systems put their countries’ financial interests far above our defense needs. Athens will always be at a disadvantage from the moment that the other side can pour more funds into the acquisition of defense material. Secondly, Turkey continues to regard Greece as a rival, if not hostile, force that should not have the advantage on land, in the air or at sea. This fact alone should be of concern to the more complacent members of the political and academic establishments who continue to think of Turkey as a normal European country. Last but not least, “calm waters” diplomacy is a double-edged sword for Greece. On the one hand, the Turkish Air Force stopped violating Greek airspace, with whatever positives this brings; on the other, however, Ankara is clearly taking advantage of the lull in relations with Greece to modernize its armed forces.
European solidarity is effectively nonexistent in defense, as the major producers of military systems put their countries’ financial interests far above our defense needs
There are not a lot of avenues open to Greece if it wants to safeguard its national interests in the decades to come. Only by developing a strong domestic defense industry on healthy foundations will it stop having to hold out its hand in this critical sector. And for this to happen, it needs a new national strategy that will set realistic goals for turning the country’s defense industry into a tool of true power.
Privatization is never a simple matter, as the cases of Hellenic Vehicle Industry (ELVO) and Hellenic Aerospace Industry (EAV) have demonstrated. The state’s role needs to be restricted, however, as the experience so far has been truly disappointing, since this strategic sector was treated like an extension of the partisan state since 1981. This has changed, fortunately, and we now have a small but very promising private defense industry that has even scored some significant export successes.
Expectations, however, cannot be set too high. Greece cannot produce its own fighter jet or missile system; this would demand resources that it does not have and is very unlikely to have anytime soon. It is, therefore, essential that Greece increases its participation in European consortiums that are focused on developing and producing big defense systems, like sixth-generation jets, for example. This would override the country’s structural weaknesses and give it access to the newest equipment.
At the same time, it needs to bolster cooperation between the public and private sector and the scientific community in the production of new defense technologies, both for Greece’s use and for commercial purposes. The recent establishment of the Hellenic Center for Defense Innovation is a step in the right direction but it still lacks a sense of vision. If there is one thing we have learned from the war in Ukraine, it is that emphasis should be placed on 3D printing to support a strong and flexible logistics system, on unmanned aerial and underwater systems, on cyber warfare to disrupt the opponent, and on big data analysis for better force allocation in the theater of operations.
In a world where national interest always comes first, excessive reliance on foreign suppliers is naive – and dangerous.
Manos Karagiannis is an associate professor in the Department of Defense Studies at King’s College London. He is also an associate professor in the Department of Balkan, Slavic and Oriental Studies at the University of Macedonia.