How did this happen? How did a twice-impeached insurrectionist and convicted felon make it back to the presidency of the most powerful and oldest democracy in the world?
One explanation is political. Donald Trump rode a huge anti-incumbency wave into power. Another is structural, reflecting deeper flaws in American democracy that Trump’s candidacy and victory exposed.
Both explanations are right – but the structural problems are what we should be most concerned about, for Trump is bound to exploit them now that he is back.
2024 was the year of elections – a year in which well over a billion people went to the polls. In virtually every case (Mexico being a notable exception), the voters punished incumbents. From Britain and France to South Africa, India and Japan, governments around the world were either ousted or severely weakened by angry voters who had had enough. Though Kamala Harris wasn’t Joe Biden, she was nevertheless swept away by the same anti-incumbency wave that felled so many others this year.
Decades-high inflation, something most voters had never before experienced, and uncontrolled immigration, which saw millions of people slip across the southern border, were reason enough to vote against the Democrats who had been in power when this happened. No previous incumbent had ever won an election when more than 70 percent of the voters thought the country was on the wrong track and with approval ratings well below 50 percent. Even Harris’ historic candidacy and joyful campaign couldn’t overcome the nation’s sour mood.
Trump was the beneficiary. He promised a return to a time of low inflation, rapid growth, and no war. Never mind that none of the specifics added up. The people were ready for change, and Trump gave them that.
Anyone running against Biden or Harris would therefore have won this race. But it is still remarkable that Trump was the one who did it. And that requires a deeper explanation than the nation’s foul mood and urge to throw the bums in power out.
For Trump is no ordinary candidate. He had been soundly beaten just four years earlier. He then refused to accept the result and launched an insurrection that tried to prevent the certification of Biden’s win and his loss. Though he left office, he elevated the Big Lie that the election was stolen from him. He was impeached for a second time, and then indicted on criminal charges, including for instigating an insurrection. He was convicted of 34 separate felony crimes.
And, yet he won. Winning more votes than Harris and more votes than he did in 2020, before any of these crimes had been committed. For Trump, the lesson now is that he can get away with it – that there is no price to pay for undermining democracy.
And he’s right. The system failed in ways that raise serious questions about democracy. Yes, the institutions held after January 6 and the electoral winner was inaugurated two weeks later. But Trump was never held to account for what he did. And that is where the American system failed.
The Senate failed to convict him, which would have barred Trump from public office for life. The Justice Department did not indict him until two-and-a-half years after the insurrection. The Supreme Court then delayed for months to hear and rule on Trump’s claim that he was immune from prosecution, only to then ignore the case before it and invent an entirely novel presidential immunity for “official acts.” With Trump’s election, the special counsel prosecuting the case against him will end his quest for justice and the entire Republican Party opted to embrace Trump in the fundamentally flawed belief that victory is more important than justice or accountability in a democracy.
Trump not only got away with his criminal conduct; thanks to the Supreme Court he now returns to the White House with even fewer constraints on his power than any president before. And he will use that power unrelentingly.
During the campaign, Trump promised to sic the military after his domestic enemies, silence media critics, deport millions of undocumented immigrants, turn the courts against his political opponents, fire thousands of civil servants, demand loyalty to him and him alone of all those who serve, impose tariffs on all imports, weaken alliances and cozy up to the strongmen he admires.
In his victory speech, Trump declared that he would govern by this motto: “Promises made, promises kept.” Many who voted for him dismissed his promises as “just talk.” But I, for one, believe him.
Ivo Daalder is CEO and former president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. He served as US ambassador to NATO during the Obama administration and director for European affairs on the National Security Council during the Clinton administration. His books include “The Empty Throne: America’s Abdication of Global Leadership,” co-authored with James Lindsay.