[John Liakos/Intime News]
Santorini’s recent seismic slowdown has not ended the underlying crisis, scientists say, as new data show persistent deformation across the southern Aegean volcanic arc.
Seismicity has declined since the February 2025 surge, but “has not returned to pre-crisis levels,” said Margarita Segou of the British Geological Survey. Weekly events above magnitude 2 still do not consistently fall below five. More striking, researchers report accelerating aseismic deformation: The Cyclades are “opening” at 17 millimeters per year, up from 3.8.
“The area remains highly active,” she said, adding that the mechanism behind last year’s crisis “still exists.” The deeper causes persist, and scientists cannot predict when slow deformation may turn seismic. Segou likened the process to chocolate: brittle when cold, pliant when warm. She urged faster data analysis, including real-time artificial intelligence, noting that Greece still lacks high-resolution imaging during earthquakes.
February’s crisis shifted Astypalaia and Naxos by centimeters and sank the Kolumbo seafloor volcano by 19 centimeters. Findings will be presented at the European Geosciences Union conference in Vienna on Tuesday, highlighting the need for sustained monitoring and preparedness across the region.