The 2025 primary budget surplus overshoot is endowing next year with an extra €1 billion, expanding the fiscal room for maneuver, albeit insufficiently, in view of a Thessaloniki International Fair set of announcements with increased political weight this September.
Last week’s surprise by ELSTAT data – with a primary surplus of 4.9% of GDP in 2025 against a target of 3.7% – translates into a surplus of €2.9 billion, of which, due to European rules on the limit on expenditure increases, only €1 billion can be given for support measures.
In conditions of reduced visibility due to the war, officials at the National Economy and Finance Ministry also estimate it will need another €500 million to €1 billion in order to formulate a package of measures in view of the 2027 election year.
The tone of the announcements of the new measures last week did not reveal concern, but demonstrated justified caution regarding the size of the fiscal space.
After all, some of the risk scenarios that were being examined just a month ago have already become reality, considering that the situation in the Middle East does not portend an immediate de-escalation.