As the Middle East is exploding and a new geopolitical landscape is being shaped in the Eastern Mediterranean, US diplomacy will play a major role in the outcome, which already involves a change in regional dynamics.
Being the only power with direct influence on all the major players in the area, Washington will use its political weight – potentially backed, when necessary, by its military might – to have a critical impact on developments.
Depending on the circumstances the US will utilize an array of carrots and sticks to persuade friends and allies to move in a certain direction, while trying to keep foes at bay.
In this volatile situation, Greece – a widely recognized stabilizing actor in the East Med and the Balkans – has serious concerns about Turkey’s aggressive involvement in Syria and its direct influence over certain armed factions in the country.
Ankara’s plans to forge an agreement with the new Syrian leadership on maritime zones is – along with other issues – a worrisome development for both Greece and Cyprus, another reliable ally of the US as well as Israel, as it would impact the latter’s exclusive economic zone.
There needs to be long-term vision and planning, not just short-term reactions to the latest movements on the ground, and the burden for this falls on the State Department.
The Trump administration is going full force with political appointees who in many cases will have access to the president, but the developing situation in the region demands experience and deep knowledge of issues, personalities, historical animosities and the sensitivities of different actors.
Hence, career diplomats, if not necessarily in the relevant capitals, but definitely back in Washington, will have to exert influence through persuasion, to ensure some stability and consistency, especially as foreign policy under Donald Trump is expected to be more unconventional.
Political appointees will be well served if instead of dictating actions and policies, they rely heavily on the advice of experienced diplomats.
The puzzle in the East Med is so complex, one – no matter how strong – cannot approach developments in a linear and simplistic way.
In that context, the new administration should value and actively support the few democratic, predictable and credible allies it has in the region.