The debate in the prime minister’s inner circle about when the next national elections should take place continues unabated. The dilemma, and the pros and cons of each scenario, are well known. Let the present four-year term run its course till the summer of ‘27, or call an early poll in the next six months or so?
The one side sees the mounting pressure on the government, from the high cost of living to a number of highly publicized trials, threatening its chances; hence the earlier the better.
This approach is also supported by two more considerations: first, the ruling party’s recent rise in opinion polls due to the public’s need for a steady hand in times of crises, and, second, the continuing divisions in the center left opposition where the main “protagonists” are PASOK and the new party to be founded in the next few months by former PM, Alexis Tsipras.
The supporters of resorting to early elections this year seem to have a date in mind; a month or so after the Thessaloniki trade fair in early September, when the prime minister will outline the following year’s economic policies and will have a chance to capitalize on promises he will make.
The other side, which to a certain extent includes the PM himself, favor respecting institutional continuity thus getting as close to the end of the government’s second term in June 2027 as possible.
Also, next July Greece takes over the European Union’s six-month rotating presidency. With the inability – according to all the polls – to form a one-party government, it will most likely lead to another election a month later, the argument goes, so it would be better to avoid internal political instability while trying to lead the EU.
In addition, there are numerous major EU-funded projects running and Brussels will be looking for a serious and not politically oriented 2027 budget by October, in order to release a final tranche of about €4 billion from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility.
In any case, the PM and his advisers will continue weighing the pros and cons, assessing on the economic side, the impact of the Iran war, and on the political front, the dynamics in the opposition as PASOK has concluded its national congress, and Alexis Tsipras gets closer to announcing his new party.